The longer I am a financial planner, the more I am reminded how LITTLE any of us knows about the future. That is why I work so hard to prepare my clients to cope with the inescapable certainty of uncertainty.
Below is a chart showing three potential outcomes for the U.S. economy in 2023, and what each could potentially mean for various segments of both the economy and markets.
Source: Lincoln Financial survey of investment managers. The probabilities expressed above are those of select asset managers surveyed as of 6/30/23 and not necessarily that of any Lincoln Financial Group affiliate. Results are not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and are not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice, or a recommendation for any specific strategy, product, or service from any of the participating investment managers.
The chart talks about “landing.” This is frequently used when discussing whether an economy will enter a recession at the conclusion of rate hiking cycles. By raising rates, central banks seek to slow the economy to bring price stability while avoiding a recession.
The chart above shows predictions from money managers, below is some information on the current economic situation.
How is the US economy doing now?
- US GDP increased 2.1% in 2022 after increasing 5.9% in 2021. As of Q3 2023 GDP was at 4.9% versus an historical average of 2.8%.
- Year-over-year inflation, the rate at which consumer prices increase, was 6.5% in December 2022. This compares to a high of 14% annual inflation in 1980.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in 2022 and again on February 1, 2023 to curb inflation, increasing the target rate from near zero to 4.5-4.75%. As of November 2023, the Fed Rate held steady at 5.2% compared to the historical average of 4.6%.
- When accounting for inflation, workers’ average hourly earnings were down 1.7% in December 2022 compared to a year prior.
- The ratio of unemployed people to job openings remained at or near record lows throughout 2022.
- The unemployment rate was 4.0% at the beginning of 2022 and ended the year at 3.5%. As of October data, the US Labor Department reported that 3.9% of people looking for work could not find work.
- The labor force participation rate remains almost one percentage point below February 2020.
- Last year, the US imported $948.1 billion more than it exported, leading to a 3.9% increase in the trade deficit from 2021. This is the 5th largest annual trade deficit, after adjusting for inflation.
That’s a lot of information. All the data can get confusing. If you would like to talk with an experienced, highly-trained, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and Behavioral Financial Advisor to help better understand what all this data means for your financial goals, I would love to visit with you. So, follow this LINK to find a time for us to have a get-acquainted visit.
I am a financial planner who is an advocate for my clients ALL THE TIME – a fiduciary financial planner. I provide guidance based on clients’ best interests, not commissions or sales quotas. I think it’s the best way to serve clients and I am thrilled to work this way all the time.
And yes, I’m still taking on a few great families to be part of my financial planning practice.
Dunncreek Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice, nor is this article intended to do so.